Bitcoin’s Hidden Surge: Why Glassnode’s Hold Waves Just Flashed a Rare Signal Not Seen Since 2020

Something massive just happened on-chain — and almost no one is talking about it.

According to Glassnode’s Total Hold Waves, Bitcoin just printed one of the largest spikes in new short-term holders that we’ve seen in nearly half a decade. This metric tracks how many BTC are held by wallets grouped by age — from 24 hours, to 1 week, to 1 month, and so on.

And what we saw on Saturday, November 22, is the kind of movement that only appears at major bottoms or large accumulation events.

WOW! This Major Glassnode Signal is Flashing!

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A 24-Hour Spike Not Seen Since the COVID Crash

On November 22, the 24-hour hold wave jumped sharply to 3.824%.

At first glance, that number may seem small — until you zoom out.

The last times we saw a spike anywhere close to this level were:

• The March 2020 COVID crash (3.54%+)

• The 2016–2017 pre-parabolic rally (brief peak at 4.05%)

• The FTX bottom in late 2022 (peaked around 2.6%)

These spikes don’t happen by accident.
They represent a sudden, aggressive rush of new buyers entering the market — “buying the dip” with conviction.

But this one is different.

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Why This Spike Matters More Than Prior Accumulation Events

To understand the scale, look at recent history:

1. December 2022 (FTX bottom)

24-hour hold waves reached ~2.6%.
Result: Marked the start of the entire 2023 bull cycle.

2. March 2024 (Post-ETF rally exhaustion)

Big 24-hour spikes, but they occurred at local tops, not bottoms.

3. October–December 2024 (Election pump)

Large entities (likely funds or market makers) repeatedly bought on Wednesdays, spiking short-term hold waves — a sign of distribution, not accumulation.

But today’s spike?

It didn’t happen after a rally.
It didn’t appear during hype.
It didn’t follow a parabolic leg.

It happened after a 36% drawdown from $126K → $80K.

This was pure bottom-feeding accumulation — not exit liquidity buying.

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Why This Looks Like a Bottoming Structure (Even if Price Says Otherwise)

Glassnode’s Hold Waves behave like “rolling layers.”
A spike in the 24-hour group eventually rolls into:

• the 1 day–1 week category

• then 1 week–1 month

• then 1–3 months…

When serious buyers step in, those layers thicken over time.

That’s exactly what happened:

• March 2020 COVID crash → bottom → massive new wave of holders

• December 2022 FTX → bottom → long-term holders surged for months

• 2018 bear market bottom → same pattern

And now?

The total accumulation wave today is ABOVE 13% — higher than the 2022 bottom.

This is not what a macro top looks like.
This is what deep conviction accumulation looks like.

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But… Why Isn’t Price Pumping Yet?

Because there are bearish macro pressures still weighing on price action, including:

1. Stablecoin dominance keeps rising

This means:

🟥 More traders are sitting in cash, not deploying capital yet.
🟥 Risk appetite is muted.
🟥 Market makers can still push prices down.

Until stablecoin dominance falls under 8.2%, caution remains warranted.

2. Trend structure is still bearish

On the BTC 4h and 1D charts:

• Lower highs

• Lower lows

• Downward-sloping trend indicators

Even with RSI resets and momentum shifts, macro is still pointing downward.

3. Volume is weak

A real bottom typically forms with:

• a blowout candle

• massive capitulation volume

• followed by strong recovery flow

We haven’t seen that… yet.

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What Happens Next? The Most Likely Scenario

Given the data, the most probable path is:

✔ Short-term bottom at $80,000

The accumulation spike strongly supports this.

✔ Relief bounce toward $92K–$95K

This aligns with:

• the key moving averages

• oversold RSI reset

• historical behavior after large hold-wave spikes

✔ But NOT an instant V-shape recovery

Historically, Bitcoin almost never V-recovers from major drawdowns unless triggered by a black swan (like the COVID crash).

Instead, expect:

➡ A multi-week chop zone

Think:

• fake breakouts

• bull traps

• slow grinding recovery

• liquidity hunts

Very similar to:

• January 2022

• Q2 2021

• Q1 2019

✔ Final exit rally for altcoins

A “last gasp” altcoin rally often happens before deeper downside — especially when stablecoin dominance is rising.

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When Does This Turn Truly Bullish Again?

Two things must happen:

1. Stablecoin dominance must break down (under 8.2%)

This signals real risk-on behavior.

2. Bitcoin must reclaim major moving averages with volume

Not weak, manipulated wicks — actual sustained buying.

When those two align, the accumulation we’re seeing now becomes the foundation for the next major leg up.

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Bottom Line: This Is a Major Long-Term Buy Signal — But Not a Short-Term Moon Signal

What the Glassnode Hold Waves Spike Means

✔ Massive dip-buying occurred
✔ Similar spikes only happen at macro bottoms
✔ New buyers are entering aggressively
✔ Accumulation is stronger than at the 2022 bottom
✔ Long-term structure remains bullish

But…

❗ Trend is still bearish
❗ Volume still weak
❗ Stablecoin dominance still high
❗ Short-term rallies = likely bull traps

This signal is the strongest early-bottom indicator we’ve had since COVID and FTX — but the market still needs time.