Has Bitcoin Topped? What Comes Next for the Crypto Market

By Dan | Coin Bureau Trading

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Introduction

What’s up, everyone — Dan here from Coin Bureau Trading.
Today, we’re diving into one of the most important questions in crypto right now:

Has Bitcoin already topped? Or is the real top still ahead?

We’ll break down:

• Key indicators to watch

• What the U.S. dollar (DXY) is signaling

• The role of Bitcoin dominance in predicting altcoin season

• Why timing a top matters less than understanding the setup

(This analysis is for educational purposes only, not financial advice.)

What’s Next For CRYPTO!? Did BITCOIN TOP Already!?

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1. Where We Are Now

Earlier this year, I projected a Q3 cycle top for Bitcoin — later adjusting that outlook to October for Bitcoin and November for altcoins.
Now that October has come and gone, many are asking: “So what’s next?”

The honest answer:
I’m no longer fixated on specific dates. Instead, it all depends on two macro indicators:

• The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)

• Bitcoin Dominance

These two forces largely dictate the rhythm of the crypto market.

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2. The DXY: The Dollar Holds the Keys

The DXY measures the strength of the U.S. dollar relative to other global currencies.
Here’s the rule of thumb:

• DXY down → global liquidity up → crypto rallies

• DXY up → liquidity tightens → crypto weakens

Historically, every major Bitcoin bull phase has coincided with a medium-term downtrend in the DXY.
When the DXY drops, risk assets — especially Bitcoin — surge.
And when that drop continues into a second leg lower, that’s when altcoin season typically ignites.

What to Watch Now

Currently, the DXY has been chopping sideways since July.
If it breaks decisively below 98, that’s the confirmation we need.
This would mirror the setups seen in 2017 and 2020, where:

• The DXY peaked in October

• Then rolled over sharply into November and December

• Triggering explosive altcoin seasons

If history repeats, a DXY breakdown here could fuel the largest alt rally since early 2021.

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3. Bitcoin Dominance: The Silent Signal

Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) measures Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market cap.
Here’s the pattern that has repeated in every cycle:

Bitcoin tops not when dominance rises, but when dominance starts falling sharply toward support.

In past cycles:

• In 2017, BTC topped when dominance broke below ~51%

• In 2021, BTC topped when dominance broke below ~58%

• Today, the key level is around 55%

So when Bitcoin dominance falls to ~55%, expect a Bitcoin top, regardless of whether the price is $90K or $150K.
After that, dominance usually drops to the 45–49% range — that’s when altcoins explode, marking the true altcoin season peak.

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4. The Timing Problem: “When” Is the Wrong Question

Since mid-summer, both the DXY and BTC.D have flashed setups for a rotation, but neither has confirmed yet.
This has led to months of frustration for traders calling for a top or alt rally.

The lesson:

Market cycles are driven by structure, not calendars.

Trying to pick the month of the top is less useful than watching when the structure breaks — when DXY starts its second leg lower, and when BTC.D loses 55%.

When those two things align, the top will form — no matter the date.

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5. Has Bitcoin Already Topped?

Some traders, like CryptoBullet, believe Bitcoin topped in early October.
His reasoning: BTC hit local euphoria, and ETH is now showing relative strength — a pattern similar to 2021.

I disagree — for now.
Bitcoin dominance hasn’t yet broken 55%, and the DXY hasn’t rolled over.
Those are missing ingredients that have historically confirmed tops.
Without them, what we’re seeing may just be pre-top consolidation — not the end.

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6. What Happens After the Bitcoin Top

When Bitcoin does finally top, altcoins typically peak about one month later.
Example patterns:

• BTC topped in December 2017 → Alts peaked in January 2018

• BTC topped in April 2021 → Alts peaked in May 2021

So if Bitcoin’s top forms mid-November (hypothetically), expect altcoins to peak mid-December.
That lag is critical for traders rotating from BTC to high-beta plays.

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7. Key Takeaways

✅ Watch DXY: A breakdown below 98 = liquidity surge → risk-on rally.
✅ Watch BTC Dominance: Drop to 55% = Bitcoin top incoming.
✅ Altcoin Season: Likely follows 3–4 weeks later.
✅ Patience: This setup isn’t invalid — just slower than expected.

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Final Thoughts

The crypto market isn’t broken — it’s brewing.
Every indicator that’s mattered in the past still points toward one final push before the broader cycle turns bearish.

So instead of trying to time a single day, focus on:

• Tracking macro liquidity (DXY)

• Monitoring Bitcoin dominance

• Preparing your altcoin rotation before the crowd does

Because when that second DXY leg lower finally happens —
altcoin season won’t wait for you.