The Death of the Four-Year Cycle: Why Bitcoin Is Entering a Five-Year Supercycle

For years, the idea that Bitcoin’s price moves in four-year cycles—closely tied to its halving events—was treated as gospel. It guided investor behavior, defined bull and bear market expectations, and shaped crypto portfolios worldwide. But today, the biggest myth in crypto is being shattered.

We are not in a four-year cycle anymore. We are entering a five-year macro-driven supercycle.

This article walks through the data, dispels the halving myth, and explains why the real driver of crypto price action is liquidity—and how that changes everything.

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The Four-Year Cycle Myth

Let’s recap the old story:

• 2013: Bitcoin’s first parabolic bull run.

• 2017: Exactly four years later, another mania.

• 2021: Again, four years after that, another massive surge.

• Bear markets followed: In 2014, 2018, and 2022.

This pattern seemed so clean that traders built entire investment strategies around it. Many are now preparing to exit in 2025, expecting a devastating crash in 2026—simply because “that’s how it’s always been.”

The explanation? Bitcoin halving events, which occur every four years, cutting mining rewards in half. This supposedly reduces sell pressure and drives prices higher due to lower supply.

But there’s a problem.

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The Halving Doesn’t Drive the Cycle

The halving theory falls apart under closer inspection:

• Early on, going from 50 to 25 BTC per block was a big deal.

• But now, going from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC is a much smaller reduction.

• Meanwhile, Ethereum underwent a “super-halving”—the merge slashed emissions by over 99%, yet ETH price underperformed.

If halvings were the core driver, ETH should have surged post-merge. It didn’t.

The truth? It’s not halvings that drive the cycle—it’s global liquidity.

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The Real Driver: Liquidity Cycles

Crypto’s biggest bull runs didn’t align with halvings. They aligned with liquidity booms.

🟢 2013: The QE Era Begins

• US Fed launched QE3, injecting $85B/month into the market.

• Bank of Japan also launched massive easing.

• China opened access to Bitcoin via exchanges.

• Mt. Gox amplified global trading access.

• All this drove a massive liquidity pulse.

🟠 2017: Global Synchronized Growth

• ECB ran €60B/month QE.

• BOJ continued easing.

• USD weakened 10%.

• ICO boom via Ethereum’s ERC20 standard.

• 24/7 leverage trading launched.

• Coinbase, Binance, and Korean exchanges brought mainstream access.

Result: Another massive global liquidity surge, and another bull market.

🔵 2021: COVID Response Mania

• Fed pumped $120B/month, with 0% interest rates.

• Trillions in stimulus checks.

• TGA drawdown pumped billions into banks.

• Negative real rates.

• Retail apps like Robinhood, PayPal, CashApp enabled crypto buying.

• Stablecoin supply exploded past $100B.

Again, crypto boomed.

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What Happened in 2022? Liquidity Reversed

• Fed began hiking rates aggressively.

• Quantitative tightening began.

• Real yields turned positive.

• USD surged.

• Major collapses: Terra, 3AC, Celsius, FTX.

• Credit and funding markets seized up.

Every bear market followed a liquidity tightening cycle—not a halving.

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The New Pattern: A Five-Year Institutional Cycle

2023–2025 is different.

• No big liquidity burst like 2013, 2017, or 2021.

• Instead: a structured, institutional bid.

  • BlackRock files for Bitcoin ETF.

  • Bitcoin ETFs launch in 2024.

  • New retail flows from Boomers and financial advisors.

  • More regulatory clarity, institutional tools, and access.

But unlike past cycles, we are still in a tightening environment. Only in 2026 do we expect:

• Fed rate cuts (2 more this year, 3+ next year).

• Renewed QE or balance sheet expansion.

• Return of global liquidity easing.

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Why 2026 Is the Real Start of the Bull Market

2026 may be the new 2021:

• Easing cycle resumes.

• Boomers reallocate into Bitcoin ETFs.

• Institutional flows accelerate.

• Altcoin season, NFTs, DeFi revival may follow.

• Liquidity will be abundant again.

This is not the end of the cycle. It’s just the beginning.

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What This Means for Investors

• Don’t sell early based on the old four-year script.

• Watch global macro, not just crypto charts.

• The best returns come during easing cycles—not because of halvings.

• Structure your portfolio for longer cycles and deeper flows.

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Conclusion: The Four-Year Cycle Is Dead. Long Live the Supercycle.

Bitcoin and crypto aren’t following a rigid timer—they’re responding to global liquidity, policy decisions, and access infrastructure.

The four-year pattern from 2013 to 2021 was a coincidence, driven by echoes of 2008’s QE framework.

That world ended in 2020.

We’re now in a new era, driven by macro policy, institutional access, and structured capital flows.

The best is yet to come.